High Country Economic Kickoff Luncheon highlights local economy

Housing is already in recession while manufacturing is “on its way,” Davis said. Despite this, he said the service sector is holding up due to many people making up for “lost time” after shutdowns and limited capacity during the pandemic.

Davis said while inventory of unsold homes in finally increasing, the country is short 5 million housing units. He said despite lumber costs “finally” decreasing, cost of building materials are still more than 35% higher than they were prior to the pandemic.

In Watauga County, the unemployment rate in November was 3.2% with only six counties in the state having lower rates, Davis said. The population in Watauga County from 2010 to 2020 increased 3,007, or roughy 5.9%.

Davis said virtually all aspects of the county indicate a strong economy including unemployment rate, real estate sales, sales tax and occupancy tax.

“In Watauga County, (the recession) won’t be as severe because the State has a rainy-day fund,” Davis said. “If we have a recession, the State will be able to continue without having to slash the budget because it has a bucket of money that can be used to continue to fund the budget, which funds Appalachian State University, which employs many Watauga County residents.”

As part of his 2023 Economic Forecast, Davis predicted GDP growth will occur at a rate of 0-1% for 2023, combined with an inflation rate that will decline to 4% by year-end. He predicts the FED will continue to raise interest rates before changing course. After a robust housing market over the last two years, Davis predicts existing and new homes sales will be flat year, likely dipping to start the year before rebounding as 2023 continues.

The event also included remarks from Tracy Swartout, superintendent of the Blue Ridge Parkway. She provided an overview of the annual visitor data for both the National Park Service and the Blue Ridge Parkway, while further detailing the direct and indirect spending the visitors to the Blue Ridge Parkway provide to its Gateway Communities.

“The 15.9 million visitors (to the Blue Ridge Parkway) in 2021 spent more than $1.3 billion in our Gateway Communities, supporting almost 18,000 jobs and $1.7 billion in economic output overall,” Swartout said. “The Blue Ridge Parkway is the most visited National Park in the country. Along with the Great Smokies National Park, we represent 10% of the entire economic impact to this country from National Parks. You have an amazing treasure in your backyard here.”

Swartout updated the audience on the deferred maintenance funds that were allocated as part of the Great American Outdoors Act, passed by Congress in 2020.

She said in addition to the annual impacts, there are “significant and generation-defining investments” that are happening right now in National Parks, including the Blue Ridge Parkway. She said the Great American Outdoors Act has authorized up to $1.3 billion to be spent per year from 2021 to 2025 for “crucial infrastructure investments.”

Swartout said the Blue Ridge Parkway has a deferred investment backlog of about $500 million. Since the initiation of the bill in 2020, more than $3 billion has been spent on infrastructure in National Parks and is contributing $4.7 billion to the US GDP.

To tie into the theme of outdoor economic impacts, Eric Woolridge, director of Planning and Development for Boone-based Destination by Design, provided an update on the Imagine Watauga Project, which will produce a new 10-year master plan for occupancy tax-funded infrastructure improvements. Presentations on progress will be made over the next two months to both the Watauga County Board of Commissioners and the Boone Town Council before a larger community-wide workshop is scheduled.