Oct. 11 risk map

The Oct. 11 risk map from the Harvard Global Health Institute.

 
 

Following are updates on COVID-19 cases and test numbers in the U.S., North Carolina and in High Country counties. The following reports may differ from other sources due to the varied reporting times of multiple health agencies and other sources. (Mobile users: Swipe left on the tables to view all columns.)

AppHealthCare has lowered the total number of COVID-19 cases in Watauga County after reconciling its data and finding duplicate cases.

The total COVID-19 cases Watauga County has had since the start of the pandemic is at 5,807 COVID-19 cases as of Oct. 1. AppHealthCare had previously reported over 6,000 total COVID-19 cases as recently as Sept. 27.

"To track and compile COVID-19 cases for our data dashboard, we monitor multiple data systems and regularly reconcile all the data systems to ensure we provide the most accurate data," said AppHealthCare Director of Communications and Compliance Melissa Bracey. "In a recent reconciliation of the data, we found duplicate cases and other cases that needed to be transferred to another county or jurisdiction based on their place of residence. As we regularly reconcile the data, there may be some fluctuations in the data that can cause the it to increase or decrease day-to-day."

High Country Cases

Sources of case information in Watauga and surrounding counties include AppHealthCare (Oct. 12), Caldwell County Health Department (Oct. 11), Wilkes Health (Oct. 12), AveryCountyNC.gov (Oct. 8) and Tennessee Department of Health (Oct. 12).  Not all counties report the same categories of data. Death data is cumulative since the agency started collecting data during the pandemic. 

The daily new cases per 100,000 people is a 7-day rolling average and comes from the Harvard Global Health Institute (Oct. 11), which calculates four risk levels: Green (<1 daily new case per 100,000), Yellow (1<10 daily new cases per 100,000), Orange (10<25 daily new cases per 100,000) and Red (>25 daily new cases per 100,000).

- Resident Cases Active Cases Recovered/Inactive Deaths Daily New Cases Per 100K People
Watauga 5,790 71 N/A 37 28.5 (Risk Level: Red)
Ashe 3,206 46 N/A 57 38.9 (Risk Level: Red)
Avery 2,638 74 2,082 32 45.6 (Risk Level: Red)
Caldwell 14,925 467 14,263 195 35.1 (Risk Level: Red)
Wilkes 10,340 173 N/A 173 24.8 (Risk Level: Orange)
Carter 10,313 248 9,858 207 41.5 (Risk Level: Red)
Johnson 3,472 110 3,316 46 47.4 (Risk Level: Red)

App State Cases

There is some overlap between Watauga County and App State's reported case numbers, as any App State student living on campus or in Watauga County is counted in Watauga's numbers, according to AppHealthCare. Appalachian State also includes students and staff who are residing in other counties in its reported numbers.

App State reports 63 percent of students are vaccinated and 94 percent of employees are vaccinated as of Oct. 11. 

For the week ending on Oct. 4, App State conducted 1,909 on-campus tests with 10 positives — or a 0.5 percent positivity rate. App State reports 496 positive COVID-19 tests since Aug. 1, 2021. 

Active cases data is as of Oct. 11. 

Students Employees Total
Active Cases 17 0 17

AppHealthCare District (Watauga, Ashe and Alleghany)

As of Oct. 12, AppHealthCare has directed 73 people in Watauga County and 123 people in Ashe County to quarantine due to being exposed to a confirmed COVID-19 case. These individuals are currently in quarantine and monitoring their symptoms. 

The Triad HealthCare Preparedness Coalition region — which includes Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Caldwell, Catawba, Davie, Davidson, Forsyth, Guilford, Iredell, Randolph, Rockingham, Rowan, Stokes, Surry, Watauga, Wilkes and Yadkin — has 504 people in the hospital with 134 people in the intensive care unit as of Oct. 12.

Non-resident cases are cumulative totals updated Oct. 12 and not all are active.

Positive Tests Among Non-County Residents
665

Watauga County Clusters & Outbreaks

Data is provided by AppHealthCare for outbreaks and clusters that are active and ongoing. An outbreak is defined as two or more laboratory-confirmed cases. A cluster is defined as a minimum of five cases with illness onsets or initial positive results within a 14-day period and plausible epidemiologic linkage between cases. An outbreak or cluster is considered over if 28 days have passed after the latest date of symptom onset in a symptomatic person or first date of specimen collection from the most recent asymptomatic person, whichever is later.

The number of cases are current at the release of the weekly COVID-19 Situation Update from AppHealthCare, most recently dated Oct. 8.

Facility or Setting Active Cases Cumulative Cases Last Positive Result
Cottages of Boone 2 11 10/5/2021
The Standard at Boone 2 9 10/3/2021
App State Baseball 0 10 9/23/2021
Hospitality House 0 7 9/22/2021
Watauga County Detention Center 0 7 9/20/2021
Thunder Hill Residence Hall 0 14 9/30/2021
App State Wrestling 0 10 9/13/2021

CDC Level of COVID-19 Community Transmission

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released mask guidance on July 27, 2021, that recommends those who are vaccinated against COVID-19 should wear a mask in a public indoor settings in areas of substantial or high transmission. The CDC lists each county and its level of community transmission for a weeklong period. The community transmission map can be found at covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view

The community level transmission listed is between Oct. 5 and Oct. 11. 

County Community Transmission Level
Watauga High (Red)
Ashe High (Red)
Avery High (Red)
Caldwell High (Red)
Wilkes High (Red)
Carter High (Red)
Johnson High (Red)

N.C. and U.S. Cases

North Carolina data comes from the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services (Oct. 12). The number of hospitalized patients represents those currently hospitalized in reporting hospitals and is not a cumulative total of people hospitalized. The estimate of people who have recovered is provided by NCDHHS once per week and is based on the estimated median recovery time for non-hospitalized cases and for hospitalized cases (Oct. 11). U.S. data is from Johns Hopkins University & Medicine (Oct. 12). The daily new cases per 100,000 people is a 7-day rolling average and comes from the Harvard Global Health Institute (Oct. 11), which calculates four risk levels: Green (<1 daily new case per 100,000), Yellow (1<10 daily new cases per 100,000), Orange (10<25 daily new cases per 100,000) and Red (>25 daily new cases per 100,000).

- Cases Deaths Hospitalized In the ICU Recovered/Inactive Daily New Cases Per 100K People
N.C. 1,436,699 17,233 2,236 608 1,371,830 32 (Risk Level: Red)
U.S. 44,560,993 716,447 N/A N/A N/A 27 (Risk Level: Red)

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(6) comments

jantodd6462@gmail.com

Thanks for this data and for keeping us informed. I'd like to see the % of population vaccinated on a graph, and the number of active cases by week over time. The total number of cases (since early 2020) isn't as helpful on a graph - - perhaps the latest number reported in the text would suffice (in my humble opinion.) I want a better idea of where we stand this week, compared to last week and the week before that. Thank you!

guest103

Actually .... with a 19.3% positivity rate with the County's population of 56,000 +/- (56,000 x .193) equates to 10,808 infections. Based on the death rate which you say is insignificant, that results in over 700 deaths in a county of 56,000 people (10,808 x .068). Sounds like nothing to worry about to me.

kpennington64@gmail.com

I'm confused. Did 11 democrats fake their own deaths so far to keep up this Fake Virus Hoax or did they actually commit suicide? Need to check with QAnon and get to the bottom of this! (I shouldn't have to say this but that's sarcasm for you QAnon folks)

andy@andybrowning.com

.68% death rate in the county = state of emergency. People have lost their minds.

thechaosaysmuuuu

So glad that you seem to care so much about your neighbors.

Of course, given that you're down in Charlotte, I fail to see why you feel the need to impose your dimwitted and cruel attitude on folks up here...

guest113

Your immature habit of calling people names really detracts from your credibility, Moo. Just sayin...

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