Regional poll: Edwards

leads race in

western North Carolina
By Scott Nicholson
nicholson@wataugademocrat.com

If western North Carolina elected presidents, John Edwards would be the current shoo-in — assuming he won the Democratic primary, of course.

A recent poll by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh showed some interesting opinions on electability, with the favorites for each party’s nomination deemed less likely to win the state if they appeared on the General Election ballot.

Tom Jensen, communications director for the non-partisan polling firm, said some of the more interesting findings were the regional differences in attitude and how former U.S. senator and attorney Edwards, a Sandhills native, polled better in the mountain regions, even though U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton remains the statewide favorite.

However, if Clinton got the nomination, she’d be less likely to top the Republican opponent in a general race.

Jensen said the same dichotomy existed in the Republican primary race, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee taking a strong lead in western North Carolina and appearing most likely to beat a Democratic opponent statewide, though former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has the best chance to win the Republican primary if it were held today.

In a poll testing general presidential match-ups. Edwards led all the Republican frontrunners in head-to-head comparisons, getting both more crossover support and a higher percentage of Democratic voters.

By percentage, he led Giuliani 48-43, Huckabee 50-43 and Mitt Romney 52-40. Republican candidates John McCain and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul weren’t included in the poll questions.

However, those three Republican front-runners led Clinton and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) by at least 3 percentage points, echoing the belief that Edwards is the Democratic candidate more likely to perform well in the Southern states.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) maintains a commanding lead over Democratic challengers in her reelection race. However, only 46 percent of voters approved of the way Dole was handling her position.

Jensen said, “For Democrats, their first choice might not be their best choice. Edwards did better in the mountains, but I don’t know why.”

In the 828 telephone area code, Edwards trailed Giuliani by 7 percentage points but led the other two Republican candidates, and Democrats dominated in the 336 area code and the 919 area code, while Republicans generally performed stronger in the western regions of the state.

The poll also asked the 457 respondents about the most important issues facing the country. The Iraq War led the way with 30 percent, followed closely by the economy and jobs at 28 percent. Moral and family values and immigration were tied at 11 percent, with health care at 8 percent.

Edwards scored high on his anti-war stance and among those strong on education and health care, while the Republicans generally fared better with those concerned about taxes, morality and immigration.

In the governor’s race, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue was a clear favorite in the poll, leading all four likely Republican candidates. The closest race would appear to be with Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, with Perdue holding a 41-39 percentage edge in the Dec. 18 poll. N.C. Treasurer Richard Moore is also vying for the Democratic nomination, and he trailed both McCrory and attorney Bill Graham by two percentage points.

Libertarian candidate Michael Munger was not included in the poll questions.

McCrory, a seven-term mayor, has not yet decided on a governor’s race, though he appears to poll well in the Charlotte area against either Perdue or Moore despite other Republicans not polling a majority in that area.

McCrory also would appear to get more crossover support from Democrats than the other Republican candidates. However, he trails frontrunner Smith in most polls that include him as potential candidate for the Republican nomination.

N.C. Sen. Fred Smith (R-12) polls competitively with former judge Bob Orr, and Jensen said Smith’s candidacy bucked the image that politics was all about television advertising.

“Fred Smith has been trailing most of the year, but he’s showing an increase in the western side of the state,” Jensen said, noting the candidate’s goal of having barbecue meet-and-greets in all 100 counties. “His success is still about showing up at the county seat and giving a speech.”

Perdue fared better among women voters than any other candidate, even those who preferred a Republican over Moore. In the 828 area code, Smith topped Moore by a point but trailed Perdue. Not surprisingly, registered voters showed intense party loyalty in the survey, meaning the unaffiliated voters who make up a third of the voting pool could be the key to the 2008 elections. The survey’s margin of error was 4.5 percent.

Public Policy Polling is a for-profit firm that conducts confidential polls for candidates but also conducts public non-profit polls.