Tourism officials look for vivid fall
By Scott Nicholson
nicholson@wataugademocrat.com

Though some biologists have cast potentially gloomy predictions for a dampened leaf season, tourism officials remain upbeat about the months ahead.

Judy Donaghy, executive director of the High Country Host, and Mac Forehand, director of the Boone Convention and Visitors Bureau, both say visitors often come to the area in the fall no matter the leaf forecasts. They also note that while some areas may be drier and less spectucular than in an average year, the mountains are not one biological region and that splendid color can often be found at varying elevations.

Forehand said he had been following various leaf predictions and noted most of the ones circulated on news wires come from Western Carolina University in Cullowhee or from Asheville, both of which are in regions suffering extreme drought. While Watauga has also suffered a drought, it’s not in as bad a shape as the western mountains.

“I think people tend to think ‘The mountains are the mountains,’ whether it’s Sparta or Murphy,” Forehand said.

“But this year in particular, I think that’s very much not true for the leaves.”

Donaghy has already been putting out positive spin, downplaying the forecasts in a press release this week issued by the High County Host, a regional tourism promotion entity.

“The High Country is not part of the mountain region that is experiencing extreme drought conditions,” Donaghy said in a statement. “We are in a drought situation, but do not have super dry conditions. It will be plenty colorful this fall in the High Country.”

Donaghy and Forehand both maintain that even if colors are not quite as brilliant as they could be, there is still plenty of scenery to enjoy and that it doesn’t seem to hamper autumn travel. Donaghy offers three decades of tourism experience to go up against the beliefs of biologists who say dry conditions could lead to a shorter, duller color show, barring late rainfall and other variable conditions.

“Often times in drier years the leaves are every bit as colorful,” Donaghy said. “Plus, we’ve had our share of afternoon thunderstorms this summer that have provided some areas with more rain than others.”

Forehand said few people are making their autumn travel plans in August, when the leaf predictions typically begin making the rounds. He said he’s received few calls on the subject and said, based on his personal observation, it could be a great color season, at least based on a dogwood tree in his yard.

“The trees look healthy enough,” Forehand said. “Almost every year I hear all the reasons why it’s going to be bad. Last year was the only time I’ve ever heard a good forecast.”

The biggest question tourism officials face this time of year is “When is the peak week?” Donaghy forecasts the colors to be at their best the third and fourth weeks of October, and Forehand generally says the third week of October is the most common response.

However, it’s as variable as another factor, such as that day’s viewing conditions, the weather and the elevation.

For those confused by conflicting opinions, potential travelers can now see for themselves by getting real-time video or updates on Web sites.

“We have varying elevations in the High Country, so there’s a wide spectrum,” Donaghy said. “From late September to early November, you’re going to find color along the Blue Ridge Parkway and our other scenic byways.”

High Country Host will publish regular leaf-looking updates on its Web site, www.mountainsofNC.com and Forehand is contributing continual updates to www.visitnc.com

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Forehand wryly acknowledged that tourism officials do have a stake in leaf outlooks.

“I try to be truthful but optimistic,” he said.